Filed under → The Rebel Calculator
Your betting app is a subscription. Your index fund is a raise.
Nearly half of millennials and Gen Z say they would earn more from gambling than from the stock market. Put the same money into both and watch what actually happens.
A plain index fund. Nothing clever.
Same deposits, minus the house cut.
Same money. Two directions.
The math, in the open
The market side. Weekly deposits growing at 10% a year, compounded weekly. That is roughly the long run average annual return of the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested since 1928. It is an average, not a promise. Real years are lumpy and some of them are ugly.
The app side. Every wager hands the house a fixed cut, and whatever survives just sits there. It does not compound, because nothing is invested. Each week your deposit gets wagered, re-wagered, and shaved:
- Straight bets: about 5% held per bet, 3 bets a week.
- Parlays: about 25% held per bet, 3 bets a week. Parlays are where sportsbooks make their real money.
- Casino app: about 6% house edge per spin, 25 spins a week. Small edge, enormous repetition. That is the trap.
This assumes average luck. Some weeks you win. The point is that the average belongs to the house, and over ten years the average is the only thing that matters.
Show me the numbers
Balance at the end of each year, in today's dollars.
| Year | You put in | In the market | In the app |
|---|